Lebanon, 1 – Israel, 0

      I have been reluctant to post anything on the new cease fire in Lebanon.   For one thing it is only a few hours after it went into effect this morning.   The main concern is that neither side has had a good history of following U.N. resolutions.   For the sake of the innocents on both sides, we can always hope...   - fc

Israel, Defeated
Round one: Lebanon, 1 – Israel, 0

Take a look at Resolution 1701: it is quite a lengthy document, which goes well beyond the call for a cease-fire and lays the groundwork for a comprehensive solution to the current crisis in the Middle East – one in which Israel gains not an inch. If implemented – and that, of course, is the key – it endorses the seven-point program of the Lebanese government, first put forward at the international conference of July 26. This means a mutual exchange of prisoners – not only the two Israeli soldiers, but the many Lebanese still being held by the Israelis – and the return of the disputed Shebaa Farms enclave to Lebanon. Resolution 1701 also harkens back to the 1989 Taif Agreement, brokered by the Arab League, that put the West's imprimatur on the Syrian "occupation," ending the Lebanese civil war.

Remember, Hezbollah is not some foreign force, or even an Iranian "proxy," as the Israelis (and George W. Bush) aver: it is a Lebanese institution, by far the best organized political force in the country – and one that now has the overwhelming support of the populace. The Israelis have not only lost militarily – in the sense that Hezbollah fought the IDF to a draw – they have also lost politically, within Lebanon, where they have alienated their former allies by bombing Christian neighborhoods.

The invasion also dealt a blow to the Israel lobby's efforts to retain control of American policy in the Middle East at a time when that stranglehold is being challenged as never before. Though subjected to a sharp attack by neoconservative guru Richard Perle for suggesting negotiations with Tehran over the Iranian nuclear program, the American secretary of state now looms all the larger in the Washington firmament, after having successfully chaperoned 1701 to its debut.

That means the neocons are still bleeding and reeling from the wounds inflicted on their power and prestige by the near-meltdown of the American occupation in Iraq. The balance of power in Washington is shifting, as the reality of what professors John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt call "the Lobby" reveals itself.

Who are you going to believe, the Lobby asked, us or your lying eyes? As propagandists, not even the Soviets were this bad.

As usual, Seymour Hersh has the inside dope, and he depicts Israel's failed blitz as a dress rehearsal for the main event: an American confrontation with Iran.

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